Archive for April, 2010
The final debate
Friday, April 30th, 2010
The 2010 election will be remembered as the one that changed all future elections. The three debates have been the only game in town in what has otherwise been a fairly uneventful campaign, save for Wednesday’s gaffe by the PM. The final debate was the last real chance before the election for the leaders to put their case directly to the electorate on prime-time TV. The result of this debate: a more upbeat Conservative party, sustained hope for the Lib Dems and a realisation for Labour that it’s almost certainly now over.
After 270 minutes of live television in the most closely fought election for a generation, the leaders of the three main parties did not manage to land a single knockout blow on their opponents – perhaps acknowledging that the traditional yah-boo aspects of political debate turn people off. The unfamiliarity with the format and the Cleggmania phenomenon are also factors that need to be taken into account when asking why some punches have been pulled.
The verdict
Cameron and Brown have faced a choice between fighting the old enemy or the young pretender. Last night they chose both in what was a more combative debate. Both put in better performances, demonstrating that they had learnt the lessons of the previous debates.
Whilst skipping over the more troublesome aspects of the economy, the debate yesterday focussed on a range of related issues such as National Insurance, Child Tax Credits, bankers’ bonuses, education and the always delicate subject of immigration.
Brown, on his specialist subject of the economy, defended the government’s record on all fronts, but went for a more negative approach which doesn’t appear to have gone down well with the electorate. He appeared marginally stronger than the previous debates, especially given the difficult circumstances, but looked exhausted and struggled to cobble together a coherent case for a fourth Labour term. His technocratic musings on the role of Regional Development Agencies is not going to convince the man on the street to vote Labour, especially when Cameron spoke so ably about schools.
Cameron also benefitted from the discussions on the euro and immigration, areas in which Clegg looked uncomfortable, and he was able to appeal to the core vote without vacating the centre ground. He showed that he had adapted to the format well and made his arguments more relevant to the man on the street rather than through the overly complex prism of the ‘Big Society’.
Clegg put in a reasonable performance, but struggled to convey the image of change and freshness that came so easily in the first debate. The electorate now know him well and it’s difficult to be the new kid on the block when you’ve been the focus of the campaign for the past fortnight. His constant references to ‘old politics’ began to grate against the recent media backdrop and he failed to convince on immigration and the euro. A less impressive performance will leave his party disappointed that he did not win, but delighted that his participation in these debates has boosted their poll standing so substantially.
The majority of the immediate polls showed the winner was Cameron, followed by Clegg, with Brown languishing behind. A YouGov/Sun poll put Cameron on 41%, Clegg on 32% and Brown on 25%. ComRes had Cameron ahead of Clegg by 2% and Populus put both Cameron and Clegg on 38%, ahead of Brown on 25%.
You can’t handle the truth
Despite the focus of the debate being the economy, no further details could be prised out of the leaders of the cuts the parties would need to make and taxes they would raise should they find themselves in power on 7 May. This week the Institute for Fiscal Studies has reported that all three parties have not explained in their manifestos, by some distance, how they are going to finance their plans to reduce the deficit.
Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, possibly provided the best explanation of this reticence yesterday when he was reported as saying that the winner of the next election would become unelectable for a generation, such are the level of cuts needed to nurse the public finances out of intensive care. Debates between Brown and Cameron over £6billion will seem like bickering over small change when much larger numbers become the norm. Whoever wins the election will have to make difficult – and unpalatable – decisions.
Brown’s final bow
What now looks clear is that this debate was, in all likelihood, Gordon Brown’s last significant public appearance as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. If Labour is to remain in Government as part of a coalition, Brown’s head would be Nick Clegg’s first request. Cameron’s growing stature in the debates may have allowed Clegg off the hook, leaving the Labour party itself to finish off their leader whilst he looks to form a coalition with Cameron.
The Conservative leader will be hoping however, that he has done enough to win a majority. Over a drizzly bank holiday weekend, the 30% of voters who remain undecided will gradually make their minds up. Only 8 million watched the BBC’s debate last night, but with the media now providing the background narrative of Brown at the bottom of the heap, Clegg as a serious player and Cameron growing in confidence and stature, the Conservatives will be quietly confident that their man is on his way to Downing Street.
Tags: Big Society, Conservatives, David Cameron, debt, Gordon Brown, IFS, Labour, Lib Dems, Mervyn King, Nick Clegg, schools
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“Yesterday was yesterday”
Thursday, April 29th, 2010
Gordon Brown can take some comfort that the final TV debate takes place in a few hours to overshadow, but not erase from memory, his loose talk yesterday. The media scrum has decamped from yesterday’s key location – a Rochdale cul-de-sac - and has popped up at Birmingham University, the setting for this evening’s final debate.
The party leaders spent today campaigning in the Second City before joining the final preparations this evening. The spin room is clicking into gear, the choice of ties is being narrowed down and soundbites are being tested, but at 8.30 pm it is down to the three leaders themselves.
The theme for tonight’s debate is the economy – Brown’s specialised subject – and despite these debates being a fresh aspect of British politics, the questions asked in the build up are quickly becoming a consistent feature. Will Nick Clegg be the biggest beneficiary again? Can David Cameron persuade the undecided (still said to be around 30% of registered voters) that it’s time for a change? Is Gordon Brown able to convince voters that his younger rivals are too inexperienced?
The previous two encounters have not delivered the knockout blows that we were all hoping to see, but the BBC’s David Dimbleby has years of experience in chairing political confrontations, so expect him to allow plenty of scope for a strong, fluid debate to take place.
We will be watching the debate closely and, as before, posting our thoughts early tomorrow on who said what, what they really meant and how it could affect the outcome.
Tags: David Cameron, Gordon Brown, Nick Clegg
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A tale of two e mails
Thursday, April 29th, 2010
Gordon Brown used to be famous for his refusal to apologise or take the blame when things go wrong. Nowadays, of course , he’ll say sorry at the drop of a hat. As Mrs Duffy from Rochdale found out to her cost several times yesterday.
However, as Mr Brown was fevourishly apologising to party workers by e mail late last night, the normally bookish Michael Gove chose not to compound Brown’s misery but instead e mailed his supporters this heroic pose of our hero’s campaigning against the bureaucrats of West Yorkshire.
Not an airbrush in sight.
Tags: Gordon Brown, Michael Gove, Mrs Duffy
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Mr Bean’s Back!
Wednesday, April 28th, 2010
Gordon Brown’s latest gaff has resurrected Mr Bean to the British body politic.
Where we had Teflon Tony, where no amount of dirt seemed to stick, we seem to have Gormless Gordon who seems continuously to snatch defeat from the jaws of mediocrity.
However, he’s bounced back from the Damian McBride saga, unleashing the hounds of hell on his Chancellor and accusations of bullying No 10 staff – so perhaps it’s too early to count him out just yet.
Tags: Gordon Brown, Tony Blair
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Last Week’s Debate Analysis
Thursday, April 22nd, 2010
There was a lot of talk last week about whether or not the Prime Ministerial debate would provide a game changing moment. Well, it did and with some style. Clegg mania has arrived and may yet be on the wane following a broadside in the press questioning not just Lib Dem policy but also his personal probity.
Before tonight’s debate let’s take a look back at what we said last week in the immediate aftermath of round one:
Dateline 16.04.10
Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg last night squared up in the first of three television election debates. An historic first, the debates offer an opportunity for the leaders to present themselves directly to an audience of millions. So how did they fare?
So, you want to be Prime Minister.
Last night’s debate had the media poring over television footage and excitedly drawing Kennedy/Nixon comparisons days before the protagonists even took to the stage. After the event, reactions are mixed and the analysis frenetic, but most agree on Nick Clegg as the inaugural victor.
Going into the debate Cameron was carrying the burden of frontrunner and Brown the weight of a 13-year incumbency. By contrast, Clegg had a new advantage for a third party leader, enjoying equal prime air-time with the two biggest parties.
Into the fray
The leaders warmed up for the debate with a day of intense rehearsal to acquaint them with the 72 rules on contributions (1 minute), applause (forbidden), and interruptions (limited). The opening statements showed they had put their rehearsal time to good use – three carefully-worded (albeit lack-lustre) pitches clearly set out policies and messages, although the clearest message of all was how anxious they were not to slip up.
The debate’s other novel feature was Nick Clegg sharing a platform with Brown and Cameron – an opportunity he exploited to the full. For Clegg, this was not just about setting out his stall but about introducing himself to the largest audience he will ever have, many of whom had never heard of him let alone knew what he stood for. The universally positive polls confirm that he did so successfully.
Time for answers
The different strategies that Cameron and Brown had decided to adopt for the debates – and particularly for dealing with the Clegg factor – soon became clear. Cameron tried hard for the most part to ignore Clegg; Brown to smother him in his embrace. Both might be revising their tactics for next time – Brown’s advances were largely spurned and Clegg was able to land some blows on Cameron without attracting too much returning fire. In response to each other, Brown chose to be the more aggressive and Cameron attempted to stick to the positive as much as possible to appeal to the viewers at home. The danger for Brown is that voters find too much aggression a turn-off and for Cameron that in trying to avoid knock-about, he risks coming across as too bland.
Heavily vetted audience questions covered immigration, health, education, crime, Afghanistan, the economy, expenses and social care. The content was familiar and dividing lines predicable, but the fresh element was hearing the leaders directly pit their policies against one another in a respectful forum. Generations of leaders who rejected live debates on the grounds that they take place every week at PMQs were undermined last night as the juvenile braying across the despatch box was exposed as a poor substitute for substantive debate.
The wider impact
The media, blogosphere and viewing public were not just tuning in for ‘the issues’. They were closely monitoring everything that wasn’t said; body language, nerves, choice of tie. Real-time polling and twittering also recorded a Clegg victory by these measures. His skilful exploitation of Cameron and Brown’s disagreements on the economy and a rejection of Brown’s attempts at a tactical anti-Cameron alliance went down well with viewers. His approachable, ‘nice guy’ addresses to camera and empathetic tone were preferred to Cameron’s stream of soundbites and Brown’s volley of statistics – although whether the nation wants the ‘nice guy’ as Prime Minister is yet to be seen.
With viewing figures and leaders’ energy levels dwindling, the leaders delivered their closing statements with what must have been a sense of relief that there had been no headline-hitting gaffes. Uncomfortable media performer Brown coped, but Cameron – who had the highest expectations to meet – has work to do in the next two debates fully to explain and effectively sell the change he is asking the country to undertake.
This debate was probably not a game-changer, but it underlined that this remains an unpredictable election, not least because the impact of the Lib Dems is so difficult at this stage to assess. But as the rest of the nation dissects the event, Brown, Cameron and Clegg are already warming up for the next head-to-head. We’ll be back next week with views and analysis of the foreign affairs debate, refereed by Adam Boulton on Sky News.
Tags: Conservatives, David Cameron, Gordon Brown, Labour, Lib Dems, Nick Clegg
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Future, Change or Fairness
Thursday, April 22nd, 2010
The election story today isn’t really about Brown, Cameron or Clegg. Instead the media are focussing on their favourite issue … the media.
The first of three leaders debates will kick off tonight on ITV1 for what many are predicting will provide the game changing moment for the three parties, none of which has succeeded in nailing the deficit issue or capturing the public’s imagination.
This week each of the parties polished their presentation skills and stepped up a gear with the publication of the manifestos. While the leader’s debates will inevitably be the main focus of the campaign, the manifesto launches provided the first opportunity to test the credibility of the parties. So how did they do?
Cuts, cuts, cuts
The big battleground of the campaign continues to be the budget deficit, with all three parties recognising that this path is going to be difficult to navigate, and the political terrain rocky.
With the budget deficit needing to be reduced by around £70 billion, arguments continue about the balance between tax increases and spending cuts, the timing of cuts, and what to cut. While in all cases it is difficult to pin down the details, it appears that the Conservatives are planning the biggest squeeze on spending (and will act more quickly than the other two parties), followed by Labour, with the Lib Dems, surprisingly given Vince Cable’s positioning as the blunt speaking economic sage, marginally behind Labour in the spending squeeze stakes. Commentators will be hoping that more details emerge in the economy leaders’ debate, although given this is the last of the three on 29 April, they will have some time to wait yet.
Policy on the cheap
The Labour Manifesto offers the public the opportunity to recognise its investment in public services to date and to consolidate this under the experience of Gordon Brown.
But policy after the election will be characterised by a prudence beyond even the early years of Gordon Brown’s chancellorship – and the source of the budget cuts remains unclear. Whilst recognising government spending must be reduced, Labour offers a set of guarantees on public services such as health and education to ensure they continue to deliver despite budget cuts. They propose a ‘future fair for all’ which is based on the idea that the state has an active and beneficial role in people’s lives and point to their record in office to demonstrate this.
The Conservative theme of the big society and their invitation to join the government of Britain rejects this expanded role for the state, supporting public services, but asking why government should always be the one to provide them. Cameron’s ‘invitation to join the government of Britain’ offers individuals and local groups the chance to run their own public services with government funding. Tax breaks for businesses and some married couples indicate traditional Conservative priorities aimed at strengthening the private sector and sense of community. Questions remain over the extent to which individuals want to run their own public services or probe the minutiae of government expenditure and Cameron’s approach could be criticised for being over-cerebral.
The Liberal Democrats offer the theme of fairness with wealth redistribution as the cornerstone. A new tax regime would remove those on the lowest incomes from tax altogether whilst the rich would have to pay more than Labour’s proposals. Vince Cable has provided additional clout, as well as populism, to the Lib Dem cause in his role as economic sage and bank-basher-in-chief. By returning the banks to centre stage the LibDems hope their manifesto pledges will rekindle the anger which people felt as ‘Fred the Shred’ hit the headlines to secure them new votes. At the heart of the Lib Dem prospectus is a major package of tax changes – £16.8bn of tax cuts, financed by £19.2bn of tax increases. Commentators have questioned whether the arithmetic adds up, as their calculations are based on being able to raise an additional £4.6bn in tax revenue from unspecified anti-avoidance measures. There is irony in this as Vince Cable has attacked both Labour and the Conservatives for relying on “efficiency savings” in their calculations.
The campaign continues
But election manifestos are not bestsellers, especially at a time when politics itself is in the dock (literally in some cases). How will these documents affect the campaign and the outcome of the election?
The manifestos ultimately provide the proof points for the general theme of the campaign and demonstrate that the parties have done the preparatory work necessary to govern effectively. They are also closely analysed by the media who will be quick to highlight inconsistencies and black holes which is why the launch presentation is often as significant as the content. With the polls so close and a hung parliament still very much on the cards, the similarities between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats – constitutional reform aside – are interesting. The Liberal Democrats have cleverly crafted their manifesto pledges to chime with the Conservatives and leave open the option of a post-election deal.
The opinion polls remain all over the place. Yesterday the Conservatives were as little as 3% ahead nationally. Today they are 9% ahead nationally and 12% ahead in the top 100 marginal seats. The truth is it is probably worth treating all polls with a pinch of salt until well after the Leaders’ Debate and the end of the first full week of campaigning. Only then will we get a clearer picture of the direction of this campaign.
Tags: Big Society, Conservatives, David Cameron, debt, Gordon Brown, Labour, Lib Dems, Nick Clegg, public services, Vince Cable
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Key campaign issues
Friday, April 9th, 2010
All three major party leaders have already made high-profile speeches outlining their key campaign themes ahead of the expected publication of party manifestos next week.
The Tories have set out six pledges focusing on debt reduction, enterprise, families, the NHS, schools and the nature of politics. Labour’s initial campaign focus has been much broader, based around securing the recovery, raising family living standards, building a high-tech economy and protecting frontline services. The Lib Dems in turn have placed fairness at the heart of policy, talking of fair taxes, fair starts for children, fair and clean politics and a fair, green economy.
Behind all of this froth the major battleground is clear: the three parties’ plans for the timing and degree of deficit reduction – and what these mean for taxation (note the controversy this week over the implications of Conservative plans to cut NI contributions) and public services.
Tags: Conservatives, debt, Labour, NHS, schools
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The Campaign
Friday, April 9th, 2010
With an average lead of around eight points coming out of Easter and a hefty war chest, the Tories have the edge going into the campaign. The Tories also have a simpler message focusing on public sector waste and the need to keep taxes low. They have had the better of the early exchanges over National Insurance; Labour will be attempting to convince voters that this is not a credible move and will have to be funded by VAT increases in the future.
The campaign itself is set to be highly personal, with the Conservatives targeting Gordon Brown and Labour focusing on what it perceives to be the weak links within the Tory party, particularly George Osborne.
Labour will be relying upon many of the big guns brought back onto the frontline over the last year – with Lord Mandelson, Alistair Campbell and even Tony Blair set to play roles.
As they set out on their battle bus, the Liberal Democrats will hope that Nick Clegg’s equal billing with the other two leaders in the TV debates will give them an extra boost as the campaign progresses.
Politics International will be sending out regular updates over the coming weeks as the campaign continues.
Tags: Alistair Campbell, Conservatives, George Osborne, Gordon Brown, Labour, Lib Dems, Lord Mandelson, Nick Clegg, Tony Blair, VAT
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