Archive for May, 2010
Further concessions from Cameron on the ’22 Committee
Tuesday, May 25th, 2010
David Cameron has signalled a retreat on his controversial plans to stem dissent amongst back benchers by allowing the ministers to vote on elections to the 1922 Committee.
However, sources deny that further concessions have been made which would allow out of work drivers from the Government Car Service a vote on this week’s election, after they bore the brunt of yesterday’s austerity measures.
One driver, who refused to be named, said, “I had that David Davis in the back of my cab the other day, lovely fella”.
Tags: Government car service
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Cameron and Clegg to launch programme of coalition government
Thursday, May 20th, 2010
Critics have unfairly likened the London Olympic mascots, Mandeville and Wenlock, to the new leadership team at Number 10. Given the colour schemes chosen for the pair it’s easy to see why.
Tags: David Cameron, Mandeville, Nick Clegg, Wenlock
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A good day to bury BIG news
Wednesday, May 19th, 2010
Dateline: Septidi 27 Floréal CCXVIII
Nick Clegg is preparing to shake the foundations of the British political system today with his Big Bang speech following hot on the heels of David Cameron’s Big Society speech.
Meanwhile Labour’s own Big news is that Balls is about to announce his leadership candidacy and they have quietly published details of the election timetable amidst the tumult of announcements from the Coalition of Public Safety and the first day of the new term.
Labour’s timetable looks like this:
24 May – opening of MP nominations
27 May – close of MP nominations
28 May – constituency supporting nominations open
June/July – regional hustings
26 July – close of supporting nominations
16th Aug – 22nd Sept – balloting
8th Sept – last date for voting rights
25th September – ballot results
Jeez, that’ll take us right up to Fructidor.
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Compare the Miliband(.com)
Monday, May 17th, 2010
With the Labour leadership up for grabs, David and Ed Miliband have so far been the only candidates to announce their intention to stand for the leadership of the Labour Party.
Ed Balls, John Cruddas and possibly Andy Burnham are the others who may move to stop the election becoming a one family affair, but until they formally throw their hat into the ring lets have a quick look at the background of the two brothers.
So… heads or tails?
What may ultimately play into Ed’s favour is the voting system used to elect Labour leaders and the impact other candidates have on voting preferences in this system. Labour members vote for candidates in order of preference on the ballot paper and, as votes are counted, the candidate with the fewest votes drops out and their second preferences are allocated to the other candidates’ totals. The winner will need to get over 50% of the vote to sit at the head of the Shadow Cabinet table.
Those voting for Ed Balls or John Cruddas, who are both on the left of the party to varying degrees, are more likely to have the union-backed Ed Milliband as their second preference than his Blairite brother David. If the second preferences of Balls and Cruddas are redistributed early on in the counting process, Ed Miliband will probably be the beneficiary rather than his big brother, potentially taking over the 50% needed for victory.
David may therefore need to secure 50% of all first preferences if he is to beat his little brother.
Tags: Andy Burnham, David Miliband, Ed Balls, Ed Miliband, John Cruddas, Labour, Labour leadership
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Nick Clegg – still David Cameron’s favourite joke?
Thursday, May 13th, 2010
The media had their first opportunity to hear from the Prime Minister and his Deputy yesterday in a slightly surreal press conference in the gardens of No 10, where the two bantered with one another like a political Ant n’ Dec. The chemistry seemed good and the message optimistic. But with deep cuts in public spending looming, how long will the laughs last?
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The new government
Thursday, May 13th, 2010
So it’s all over. After countless twists and turns – and interminable waiting – the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have finally come to an agreement and, despite Gordon Brown’s dramatic last minute intervention on Monday, the coalition soap opera has concluded and the Skycopter can finally return to base.
After a mammoth negotiating session lasting over four hours and a joint meeting of the Liberal Democrat Federal Executive and Parliamentary Party stretching past midnight, a formal Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition was formally endorsed by the Lib Dems last night, and the work of the new Government begins in earnest today.
Details of the deal struck – both in terms of policy and personnel – have been emerging throughout the day with the initial focus on the most difficult policy areas and the key Cabinet posts.
The Cabinet
Cameron has reserved the main offices of state for Conservative MPs: his close friend and ally George Osborne is the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, William Hague becomes Foreign Secretary, Theresa May is appointed as Home Secretary and Liam Fox becomes Defence Secretary.
However, Clegg held out for government posts in proportion to the votes cast for his party in last week’s General Election (23%) and has been richly rewarded – the Liberal Democrats have secured five Cabinet places in a Cabinet of twenty-three.
Clegg himself becomes Deputy Prime Minister and the Liberal Democrat deputy leader Vince Cable has been appointed as Business Secretary. Members of the party’s negotiating team have also fared well, with David Laws becoming Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Chris Huhne Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change and Danny Alexander Scottish Secretary.
This has left David Cameron with a delicate balancing act as he seeks to preserve his top talent and to ensure his new Government adequately mirrors the diverse Britain we live in today. His undertaking to reduce the government payroll, and the ministerial ranks, makes this task even more difficult.
Cabinet positions have been secured for other senior Conservatives close to Cameron. The highly regarded Michael Gove, who commented on Sunday that he would happily fall on his sword to guarantee a place for a Liberal Democrat, stays in post and becomes Schools Secretary. Andrew Lansley becomes Health Secretary, Caroline Spelman is given the environment brief and former party chairman Eric Pickles is the new Communities Secretary.
Space has also been found for the big beasts of the party – Ken Clarke has been handed the justice portfolio and former leader Iain Duncan-Smith is brought back to the front line as Work and Pensions Secretary on the back of his work with the Centre for Social Justice.
A new National Security Council has already been established to oversee all aspects of Britain’s security – one of the Conservatives’ key manifesto pledges. Chaired by the Prime Minister, this will count amongst its members Clegg, Osborne, Hague and Fox, and other Cabinet members as required. Its first meeting will take place this afternoon, reviewing the terrorist threat to the UK and the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
David Cameron has also appointed Sir Peter Ricketts, Permanent Under-Secretary at the Foreign Office, as his National Security Advisor, a position that will be based in the Cabinet Office.
The full Cabinet is as follows:
| NAME | POSITION |
| David Cameron | Prime Minister |
| Nick Clegg (LD) | Deputy Prime Minister |
| George Osborne | Chancellor of the Exchequer |
| Chris Huhne (LD) | Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change |
| Liam Fox | Secretary of State for Defence |
| Danny Alexander (LD) | Scotland Secretary |
| Vince Cable (LD) | Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills |
| David Laws (LD) | Chief Secretary to the Treasury |
| Theresa May | Home Secretary, Minister for Women and Equality |
| Ken Clarke | Justice Secretary |
| Iain Duncan-Smith | Work and Pensions Secretary |
| Cheryl Gillan |
Welsh Secretary |
| Owen Paterson | NI Secretary |
| Sir George Young |
Leader of the House of Commons |
| Jeremy Hunt | Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport Secretary |
| Patrick McLoughlin | Chief Whip |
| Lord Strathclyde | Leader of the House of Lords |
| Michael Gove | Education Secretary |
| Eric Pickles | Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government |
| Caroline Spelman | Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs |
| Andrew Lansley | Health Secretary |
| Francis Maude | Cabinet Office Minister |
| Philip Hammond | Transport Secretary |
| Andrew Mitchell | International Development Secretary |
| Dominic Grieve | Attorney General |
| Baroness Warsi | Conservative Party Chairman |
Policy implications
Reducing the deficit and ensuring economic recovery lie at the centre of the coalition agreement. There were difference in degrees between the two parties’ plans as set out in their manifestos, but ultimately both agreed with cuts of broadly similar amounts and broadly similar balances between the balance between spending cuts and tax rises. According to the agreement document, the main burden of the deficit reduction will be borne by reduced spending rather than increased taxes.
The coalition has committed itself to holding an emergency budget by 30 June. This will announce a substantial increase in the personal tax allowance – a step towards the long-term objective of raising it to £10,000 as proposed in the Lib Dem manifesto. Conservative plans to increase the NIC threshold for employers will go ahead, but the inheritance tax cut it has proposed has been conceded as part of the deal. Capital Gains Tax for non-business assets will increase.
A full departmental spending review will also be launched, reporting in the autumn. NHS and international development spending have been ring-fenced, and a pupil premium for schools in disadvantages areas will be funded, while cuts of £6 billion to non-front line services will be identified in the current year and Liam Fox has already started his Defence Review.
Political reform is core to the coalition agreement. This includes fixed term parliaments, a referendum bill on AV and a committee on an elected Lords.
A Sustainable Double Act?
The media had their first opportunity to hear from the Prime Minister and his Deputy in a slightly surreal press conference – and mutual love-in – in the gardens of No 10.
To the sound of birdsong, Cameron emphasised that the new coalition would be founded on the guiding principles of freedom, fairness and responsibility. He said that “a new politics in the national interest is more important than the party interest” and noted that Liberal Democrats would be represented at every level in government. Clegg himself will lead on political reform and deputise for Cameron at PMQs.
Tax rises could be a stumbling block. George Osborne will have to find additional funds to pay for the Liberal Democrat proposal to reintroduce the £10,000 income tax threshold. The sacrifice of the cut in employee National Insurance Contribution rises and his headline grabbing proposal to raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1m will help to go part of the way.
Whilst the AV Referendum has been positioned as a major triumph for the party, it is not a proportional voting system and in Nick Clegg’s own words, only represents a “baby step” in the right direction. Indeed, Electoral Reform Society research suggests that if the last election was rerun under AV, we would still have a hung parliament, albeit one in which the Lib Dems had 22 more seats, ironically mostly at the expense of the Conservative Party.
Whilst there has been much focus over the last few days on the difficulties of blending together the manifestos of two parties that have been fighting a general election campaign, there are many similarities between the two parties’ programmes. In the education sphere, both agree with the need to create a more diverse provider base and to introduce a “pupil premium”. Both agree with the abolition of ID cards. The Conservatives’ welfare reform proposals are likely to be implemented in full.
Compromises have been found on areas of disagreement such as Europe and Trident, with referendums to be held on all future transfers of sovereignty, joining the euro ruled out for this Parliament and commitment to a replacement for Britain’s nuclear deterrent (although no clarity on what form this will take). Liberal Democrat MPs will also be able to abstain on a number of key issues.
Clegg’s controversial amnesty for illegal immigrants that have been in the country for ten years – and played so badly in the last of the televised debates – has been dropped.
Concessions
| Conservative |
|
| Liberal Democrat |
|
| Liberal Democrat right to abstain |
|
The future for Labour
Labour will now have to regroup and the search for a new leader will begin in earnest. A number of names are already in the frame, and David Miliband declared his candidacy earlier this evening. Two candidates have, however, ruled themselves out – Alan Johnson and Deputy Leader Harriet Harman. Speculation is now set to focus on the intentions of Ed Miliband, ex-health secretary Andy Burnham, Ed Balls and left-winger Jon Cruddas.
A meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party has already taken place and the leadership election will shortly be put in train, with a new leader set to be announced at the Labour Party’s conference in Manchester in September.
Challenges ahead
But Cameron and Clegg have more pressing concerns than the Labour Party in the short-term – the new Government’s first task will be to compile a Queen’s Speech for delivery on 25 May. Expect education, welfare reform and constitutional reform to be at the centre of it.
Looking ahead, both party leaders will have challenges keeping their parties together and finding their feet in government. There will be a lot of disappointed Conservatives without jobs, many of whom will have no prospect of attaining ministerial ranks. The backbenches will include a number of unknown quantities and whilst loyalty will be the order of the day at first, disenchantment could soon set in.
The shift to five year fixed terms parliaments means there will certainly be an election in 2015 – but confidence votes may well see one take place before this…
Tags: Alan Johnson, Andy Burnham, Chris Huhne, Conservatives, Cuts, David Cameron, David Laws, David Miliband, Ed Miliband, George Osborne, Harriet Harman, John Cruddas, Labour, Lib Dems, Michael Gove, Nick Clegg, Tax
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Brown to make an announcement?
Monday, May 10th, 2010
Sky are reporting that the Lib-Dems and Conservatives have reached a deal and that Gordon Brown will shortly make an announcement.
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Day 4 of negotiations
Monday, May 10th, 2010
Acting in the national interest?
Talks continue at 10.00 am this morning between the Conservative and Lib-Dem negotiating teams to see if they can reach agreement that would allow the formation of a new government. Nick Clegg will meet his parliamentary party at 1.00pm and David Cameron his MPs at 6.00pm. Both will have the objective of smoothing ruffled feathers amongst colleagues uncomfortable with the compromises necessary to reach agreement with people who, until recently, have been implacable political opponents.
Now that the dust has settled from the election result how does each of the major parties stand this morning?
Conservatives
There is no disguising the disappointment in the Conservative camp at failing to creep over the line needed for an overall majority. The line is that expectations were too high in the first place; they gained more seats than have ever been achieved since the 1930s; they secured a record Lab-Con swing of over 5% – bigger even than Margaret Thatcher achieved in 1979; and won a higher share of the vote than Tony Blair won in 2005, when he secured a majority of 69. And yet there are mutterings that the Party should have done better against an unpopular Prime Minister, an unfavourable economic backdrop and a government on the ropes. The critics wonder if the campaign wasn’t too cautious and the message too opaque.
In some ways the narrow party political advantage for the Conservative Party is to form a minority administration backed by a “minimalist” deal with the Lib Dems, giving Cameron maximum room for manoeuvre to call a fresh election and seek a more decisive mandate at a time of his choosing.
However, Cameron appears genuine in trying to put in place something more ambitious and durable, which would have the necessary legitimacy to deal with the current economic and financial crisis. His preferred approach seems to be a full coalition, with Lib Dems participating in government. This has attractions for Cameron. A programme supported by the Conservative Party and Lib Dems would represent nearly 60% of the votes cast on Thursday and enjoy a majority of 78 over all other parties – potentially a strong mandate to govern for a full term.
What price would Cameron be prepared to achieve this? The indications are that he is thinking big. The Lib Dems have four priorities flowing from their election manifesto: reducing the tax burden for those on low and middle incomes; reducing class sizes, introducing more diverse providers and providing extra funding for disadvantaged pupils; banking reform, tough action to cut the deficit and boosting the green economy; political – including electoral – reform.
On tax a deal seems feasible. The Lib Dems policy to raise the tax threshold and the Tories opposition to the NIC rise are both targeted at similar objectives. They also have similar positions on limiting tax credits for the better off. Cameron would undoubtedly be prepared to downgrade the priority to raise the Inheritance Tax threshold to achieve a deal.
The education policies of the two parties are already very similar and seem unlikely to cause an obstacle to a deal. Similarly the parties are not too far apart on banking reform, agree on the green economy and the differences on the deficit are to do with timing, rather than overall approach. Whilst the Lib Dems attacked the Tories for wanting to take £6bn out of the economy this year, given the scale of government spending and borrowing, this is a relatively modest difference, even though exaggerated during the campaign.
The big stumbling block is political reform. The two parties will agree on things like the power to recall MPs who transgress. The key calculation for Cameron is how much he can concede on electoral reform. His approach seems to be to offer an all party committee to look into options, a free vote of the House of Commons on whether or not to put the conclusions to a referendum, and, if passed, to hold such a referendum. Cameron still has to sell this to his MPs, many of whom will be sceptical. However, if an unstoppable momentum has built up for the Queen to ask Cameron to form an administration, it would be a brave Conservative MP who stood in the way.
What the discussions have going for them are some strong personal relationships. Edward Llewellyn, Cameron’s chief of staff and member of his four-man negotiating team, used to work for Paddy Ashdown when he was running Bosnia.
Lib Dems
For the Lib Dems the election was a huge disappointment. The campaign promised so much and, in the end, failed to deliver a breakthrough, or even an increase in the number of seats. Clegg’s ambition to replace Labour as the main challenger to the Tories on the centre left was unfulfilled.
And yet, Clegg now finds himself in the position of kingmaker he eschewed during the campaign. How he exercises his choice is fraught with difficulty and danger for the Lib Dems.
Having waxed lyrical about creating a new politics and the need for parties to co-operate, he can hardly be seen to spurn an overture to co-operate to enable a government capable of dealing with the economic crisis. There are substantial areas of potential agreement with the Conservatives that could form the bedrock of a programme for government. Could he be seen to turn his back on this because he could not get everything he wanted on proportional representation? The indications suggest that Cameron may have done enough to secure his support.
Clegg’s big problem is his party’s rank and file and its federal constitution. Little attention has in the past been paid to the Lib Dems, but they are in fact a very broad church, which spans a wide range of political opinions from left to moderate right. Holding this coalition together sufficiently to provide support to a Conservative-led government will be a huge challenge. The role of Paddy Ashdown will be important in reassuring the rank and file. His public statements have been noticeably more favourable to the idea of doing a deal with the Conservatives, than other former leaders like David Steel and Menzies Campbell, whose sympathies and instincts are clearly towards doing a deal with Labour. However, the problems of being seen to prop up a failing Labour Government would seem to present an insurmountable hurdle.
Labour
The position of the Labour Party is in many respects the mirror image of the Conservative Party. It lost more seats than at any time since the 1930s. Its share of the vote was almost on a par with the low point of Michael Foot’s leadership in 1983. And yet as a damage limitation exercise, against all the odds, Gordon Brown’s sheer bloody-minded resilience can be seen as some sort of success. This was not the wipe-out many had predicted or the melt-down the Conservatives suffered in 1997. The Labour Party still has 258 seats and looking forward they are still very much in the game to take advantage of any Conservative-led government, which has been forced to take some difficult decisions by the time it goes to the polls. This is particularly the case if, as expected, Gordon Brown steps down and the Party elects a new and more “modern” leader in the mould of the Milliband brothers.
Of course, the master political conductor, Peter Mandelson has tried with characteristic chutzpah to suggest that the last Thursday’s result was for an emphatic progressive left majority as represented by the Labour and Lib Dem parties. The problem with such sophistry is that together Labour and the Lib Dems don’t have a majority in parliament. It also wrongly presupposes that everyone who votes Lib Dem is on the left of the political spectrum, which is clearly not the case.
Also Labour’s offer on electoral reform looks highly opportunistic and does not offer the Lib Dems any guarantee that it can be carried through.
The emerging mood in the Labour Party seems to be that a period in opposition to renew itself, is preferable to trying to cobble together an inherently unstable rainbow coalition that would then be required to take some unpopular decisions that could lead to much more negative longer term consequences for the Labour Party than it faces today.
The local picture
Thursday also saw elections in 164 councils in England, including for all London boroughs. Labour made significant gains from a very low base following four years of damaging results, picking up 420 seats and fifteen councils. Whilst the Conservatives still have the majority of English councils, Labour’s positive results restore some respectability to the local picture.
The picture in London proved particularly interesting with Labour making a comeback in a number of areas. Labour regained Camden, Southwark and Islington from no overall control. The polarisation of London has continued however, with more affluent boroughs such as Bromley, Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea remaining solidly Tory, and areas such as Tower Hamlets, Hackney and Newham gaining seats as Labour fiefdoms.
The Liberal Democrats’ general election disappointment was replicated at the local authority level with the loss of 144 seats and control of four councils, including the flagship authority of Liverpool. Zac Goldsmith’s parliamentary victory for the Conservatives in Richmond also translated into local authority triumph with the Liberal Democrats losing eleven seats – and the council.
The night also saw fringe parties such as the BNP and Respect squeezed, with the BNP losing all twelve of its seats on Barking and Dagenham Council.
We now face an interesting dynamic between local and central government over the next four years. We may well see a trial of strength similar to the 1980s, with central government attempting to force cuts on local authorities to balance the books – but in the knowledge that many councils will now not face elections for four years, whilst central government could face another contest before the end of 2010.
The broader outlook
The odds are that David Cameron will be in Downing Street sooner rather than later. The only question will be whether it is at the head of a full-blown coalition or a looser arrangement, in which Lib Dem support is provided for a fixed period of time, from outside government. The latter option seems the more likely at the moment. To be continued…
Tags: Cameron, Clegg
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