Archive for January, 2011
Did Malcolm Tucker do Sir Humphrey a favour?
Monday, January 24th, 2011
After packing them in at the Gielgud Theatre the stage production of Yes Prime Minister will , as Sir Humphrey might put it, go off for a tour of the provinces.
The perceived wisdom is that people are no longer interested in politics, but audiences continue to love this kind of thing. In the 80s and early 90s Yes Minister/Prime Minister defined public perception of what went on behind the enigmatic facades of Whitehall. Politics was an eternal dual between Jim Hacker, the people’s politician with big ideas, and Sir Humphrey Appleby the civil service mandarin whose sole objective in life was to crush them. Sir Humphrey’s creed: “A career in politics is no preparation for government.”
Then came New Labour and Armando Iannucci’s The Thick of It shaped the zeitgeist for the blackberry generation. Where the media played a bit-part role in Yes Minister, with Press officers barely poking their heads around the door, Alistair Campbell’s caricature became the omnipotent “spin doctor” prowling around nervous Ministers with a handful of dodgy dossiers. Blair’s sofa-government drove the change, and Iannucci’s Whitehall and Westminster became hapless and media-driven where spin always counted for more than substance. A raised eyebrow and “that would be brave Minister” was drowned out by Malcolm Tucker screaming, “Come the f*** in or f*** the f*** off!”.
In retrospect, perhaps all this has done Sir Humphrey a very big favour. The foul-mouthed Tucker obscures Sir Humphrey’s machinations. Things are getting even better for Sir Humphrey now. It’s said that coalition government has empowered the civil service. The Cabinet Secretary’s office is the real power-base. When people have meetings, someone takes a note. Blair’s sofa is abandoned in the corner.
This government is crammed with politicians clutching their “brave ideas”. The mandarins must relish the challenge. As Andy Coulson forlornly cleared his desk in Number 10 last week, you might just have spotted Sir Humphrey peering through the curtains, a wry smile on his face, back in business.
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Are two Ed’s better than one?
Friday, January 21st, 2011
Many are calling Ed Miliband’s appointment of his namesake as Shadow Chancellor as a ‘gamble’ following the resignation of Alan Johnson for personal reasons.
Ed Balls is feared both by the Tories and by his own party for his ‘take no prisoners’ approach to politics and was fingered by Andrew Rawnsley in his book the End of the Party, to be behind elements of the briefing that proved so corrosive to Gordon Brown’s Premiership.
The worry for Miliband is whether or not Balls will settle for the Treasury brief or want the top job for himself.
The Achilles heel, of course, is the association with Brown; both the Eds will be painted as part of a failed regime which was responsible for reckless borrowing and spending which is to blame for the draconian cuts which are about to be implemented. Tories will say that Miliband has lost control of his economic strategy and his ability to show any contrition for the Brown years.
Comparisons are already being drawn with the last pair of Labour politicians who used to share an office and went on to become Leader and Shadow Chancellor. This time with the added frisson of fratricide which suggests they are probably as ruthless as each other.
Balls, however, is a clever politician. He’s not fighting an internal leadership election where positioning himself to the left of the Blairite favourite was to his advantage.
Instead the battleground is the hearts and minds of the electorate who still haven’t quite made up their minds about the coalition and who have yet to feel the full force of the ‘difficult decisions’ made by the coalition and the devestation which many will experience as a consequence. Balls will tack towards them and try and stay a little ahead with a trademark dividing line.
Polls may be showing that the coalition is unpopular but Cameron’s approval ratings are holding up and Labour is not trusting on the economy. Now at least they will have a cohesive economic strategy which will be hammered home repeatedly by a man who looks and talks more like the electorate than the Government.
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Bring me sunlit uplands.
Tuesday, January 18th, 2011
Full marks to the Times for turning to Eric Morecambe, one of the country’s most overlooked political philosophers, to provide the parameters with which to view the confrontation building over plans to reform the NHS.
The Government is ‘playing all the right notes’ says the Time’s leader, but as Morcambe famously told Andre Previn, ‘not necessarily in the right order’.
What do you think of it so far ...
In keeping with this comic theme we would suggest that, should the PM need a double act in this time of need, he might stick with Paul Burstow the hitherto anonymous Lib Dem Health Minister brought in to provide air cover at the PM’s speech yesterday and give Ricky Gervais a miss.
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In for a Penny
Monday, January 17th, 2011
The PM has ridden to the rescue of Andrew Lansley who is about to publish the biggest single bill in the history of the NHS in the teeth of opposition from vested interests amongst management, clinicians and the workforce – the very same who striped Tony Blairs back.
Far from ignoring the New Labour playbook the coalition have studied it closely and learnt perhaps most from what is missing. Blair admits that he wasted his first term in office and lost the momentum for reform. This is why Cameron is being so strident now on reform by asking ‘if not now, when?’
The line thundering from the Telegraph this morning was ’12 Months to Save Schools and NHS’. Sounds like Blair’s wasn’t the only playbook they’ve been following – the slogan is eerily reminiscent of William Hague’s warning during the General Election in 2001 that we had just days to save the pound.
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Old and Sad Election Result
Friday, January 14th, 2011
If the run-up to the Oldham and Saddleworth by-election has been a rollercoaster ride, the result itself feels a little less
exciting. It began with Phil Woolas’ dismissal from Parliament for breaking election law, a case unprecedented in over a century. It was the first coalition by-election in generations. And yet it all ended rather predictably in the early hours of this morning. An Opposition Labour hold hardly swims against the tide of public opinion, increasingly uneasy over the pace and depth of controversial spending cuts.
Things looked so different when Lib Dem candidate Elwyn Watkins began his court challenge against Woolas back in May. Nick Clegg was basking in the warm glow of “a coalition in the national interest”. Public support for tackling the deficit was high. The heady combination of political scandal and a tiny Labour majority set some Lib Dem pulses racing.
Eight months later and Clegg’s party is more than happy to settle for a decent second place. Lib Dems will point out that being unpopular is the price of power, particularly in hard times such as these. There will be talk of a political “coming of age”. There may even be some satisfaction at a highly-motivated activist campaign. Even the party’s dire performance in the polls provides some defence for the result, making it look reasonably healthy by contrast.
The Lib Dems will have to deal with the accusation that their performance was enhanced by a less-than-enthusiastic Tory HQ campaign, and a Cameroonian desire to keep them afloat. But this is infinitely preferable to a poor third place finish. This would have sent a message that the Lib Dems sacrificed all their electoral appeal for the sake of the coalition.
The accusation of a “coalition campaign” also carries some risk for David Cameron. His right-wing backbenchers, already making noises about “pandering” to the Lib Dems, will be angry that they were denied a full-blooded go at Labour, particularly given the relatively robust Tory showing in national polls. But Cameron won’t lose too much sleep over that.Ed Miliband will also be relieved. At this stage in the electoral cycle, he can hail the result as laying firm foundations for opposition.
Liberal Democrat party President Tim Farron was cocky enough to describe the result as a “score draw”. That’s pushing it too far. But Oldham and Saddleworth will be remembered as more of a preliminary skirmish than a decisive battle. The parties, the voters and the media are still feeling their way through the new dynamics of coalition politics. The defining battles of the new coalition era are yet to come.
Ben Jones
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Old and Sad Election Result |
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By GEORGE McGREGOR The Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election was the first major electoral test to be faced by the Coalition Government since the general election. It was a crucial test ahead of the Scottish, Welsh and local elections in May, which are being held on the same day as the AV referendum on electoral reform – a major touchstone issue for the Lib Dems. Ben Jones, who joined Interel after the General Election, is a former Senior Adviser on Foreign Affairs and Defence for the Liberal Democrats. Here he gives his assessment of the result:
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George McGregor – Managing Director |
| If the run-up to the Oldham and Saddleworth by-election has been a rollercoaster ride, the result itself feels a little less exciting. It began with Phil Woolas’ dismissal from Parliament for breaking election law, a case unprecedented in over a century. It was the first coalition by-election in generations. And yet it all ended rather predictably in the early hours of this morning. An Opposition Labour hold hardly swims against the tide of public opinion, increasingly uneasy over the pace and depth of controversial spending cuts.
Things looked so different when Lib Dem candidate Elwyn Watkins began his court challenge against Woolas back in May. Nick Clegg was basking in the warm glow of “a coalition in the national interest”. Public support for tackling the deficit was high. The heady combination of political scandal and a tiny Labour majority set some Lib Dem pulses racing. Eight months later and Clegg’s party is more than happy to settle for a decent second place. Lib Dems will point out that being unpopular is the price of power, particularly in hard times such as these. There will be talk of a political “coming of age”. There may even be some satisfaction at a highly-motivated activist campaign. Even the party’s dire performance in the polls provides some defence for the result, making it look reasonably healthy by contrast. The Lib Dems will have to deal with the accusation that their performance was enhanced by a less-than-enthusiastic Tory HQ campaign, and a Cameroonian desire to keep them afloat. But this is infinitely preferable to a poor third place finish. This would have sent a message that the Lib Dems sacrificed all their electoral appeal for the sake of the coalition. The accusation of a “coalition campaign” also carries some risk for David Cameron. His right-wing backbenchers, already making noises about “pandering” to the Lib Dems, will be angry that they were denied a full-blooded go at Labour, particularly given the relatively robust Tory showing in national polls. But Cameron won’t lose too much sleep over that. Ed Miliband will also be relieved. At this stage in the electoral cycle, he can hail the result as laying firm foundations for opposition. Liberal Democrat party President Tim Farron was cocky enough to describe the result as a “score draw”. That’s pushing it too far. But Oldham and Saddleworth will be remembered as more of a preliminary skirmish than a decisive battle. The parties, the voters and the media are still feeling their way through the new dynamics of coalition politics. The defining battles of the new coalition era are yet to come. – Ben Jones
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The Wide Awake Club
Wednesday, January 12th, 2011
Lib Dem strategists will be quietly pleased with Clegg’s “alarm-clock Britain” campaign. After months of pain and anguish over tuition fees, the party has at last launched a front-foot message on its own terms. Fighting for the voters that Ed Miliband prefers to call “the squeezed middle”, Clegg will push the Lib Dem income-tax break in a battle to claim the crown of Defender of the Hard-Pressed Brit.
According to the Lib Dem Leader, “These are the people who will get this country moving again. It is their hard graft, day in, day out, that will get us out of the hole Labour left us in.”
The alarm-clock isn’t the perfect metaphor (does getting up early immediately qualify you as a hard-pressed worker? “Bankers own alarm clocks”, as Alice Thomson points out in today’s Times), but it’s neat positioning and helps the Lib Dems sell their most distinctive and popular policy. With more bullish rhetoric on the independence of the party (see today’s Guardian), the Lib Dems will be hoping to fight their way out of their single-figure malaise in the polls.
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Getting to the point
Wednesday, January 12th, 2011
Quote of the day during Bob Diamond’s evidence session with the Treasury Committee yesterday:
John Mann: Mr Diamond, on how many occasions have the Prime Minister and Chancellor met with you personally, looked you in the eye and asked you to show restraint in the size of your bonus?
Bob Diamond: Um….they have not.
John Mann: Can I ask you a philosophical question? Why is it easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than a rich man to enter to kingdom of heaven?
Bob Diamond: [Long pause]. Do you have another question?
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Summit up in Number 10
Monday, January 10th, 2011
David Cameron is hosting a jobs summit today and announcing that a number of high profile companies are signing a pledge to create 40,000 private sector jobs in the next 12 months. In return Cameron proposes to cut red tape for employers with measures that will include reductions in sick pay and changes to the length of time an employee has to wait before they can take an employer to a tribunal.
The move coincides with Ed Miliband’s second monthly press briefing. It’s not clear at this stage if he will take on Cameron on the erosion of workers rights – his backers at Unite believe a flexible labour market lies at the heart of all the economy’s woes – or if he will congratulate the PM on his adoption of one of Gordon Brown’s favoured strategies of holding a summit at Number 10 whenever he found himself on the backfoot . Which was fairly often.
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This is a tax for local people.
Monday, January 10th, 2011
In recent days local authorities have come in for much criticism for imposing a variety of “stealth tax” increases on local residents – ranging from increases in parking fees, to higher rents for allotments, to increased charges for grave yard plots. When one considers that central government has cut its funding to local government by close to 30% is it surprising that local authorities seek to make up the shortfall by raising additional local funds?
After all, the government has placed the localism agenda, and the greater freedom of local authorities to manage their own affairs free from Whitehall dictat, at the heart of its policy agenda.
However, commentators have noted that Grant Shapp, the Minister of State for Housing and Local Government, may have forgotten this. He has been critical of local authorities seeking to impose these additional local charges, suggesting that local residents are already taxed enough by their authorities. Critics are asking whether this was not what the localism agenda was all about. You can’t have it both ways. Either authorities have licence to take such action – and answer to their local electorate in May - or they are subject to Whitehall control.
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Predictions for 2011
Friday, January 7th, 2011
With the political season up and running well before MPs return to the House on Monday we thought we would make some predictions for 2011.
1. GDP growth will be weaker at 1.9% than the OBR’s Autumn Forecast of 2.1%
2. The number of unemployed will remain over 1.5m throughout 2011
3. Public Sector Net Borrowing will be slightly better than predicted by the OBR at the time of the Autumn Forecast
4. Labour will win the Oldham and Saddleworth By-election
5. The Lib Dems will take a pasting in the local elections
6. Labour will return to government in Scotland following the Holyrood elections
7. The Alternative Vote referendum will be lost
8. Vince Cable will remain in his current role, but David Laws will return to the Cabinetby the end of the year
9. The Coalition will continue to hang together
10. Ed Milliband will not be challenged for the Labour leadership
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