Archive for January, 2011
Ed Miliband comes out, er, fighting, sort of.
Friday, January 7th, 2011
Ed Miliband at last came out with a line to take on the economy yesterday saying that the Conservatives are peddling a ‘great deceit’ by blaming the size of the deficit on Labour’s profligacy rather than the international finance crisis.
The Conservatives had already won the battle to define the narrative before the election in May so he faces an uphill struggle.
His line is that both the PM and Chancellor supported Gordon Brown’s response to the crisis when they had nothing else to offer in terms of experience, economics or politics and that now they are gambling on a Burkian social experiment to recast the role of the state. In doing so they are covering their tracks, claiming that their hands are tied and that their actions come as a direct consequence of Labour’s spending (they conveniently ignore that Britain is not alone in surviving the downturn with an increased deficit). What Marxists used to call the structure over agency defence.
The inevitable response is that until Labour takes some responsibility for levels of spending, which were too high even before the crisis erupted, it will be impossible to move on. A catch 22 for Miliband who, as a member of Brown’s inner circle, authored the Labour manifesto and will inevitably be monstered if he says sorry.
The problem for Mr. Miliband, despite a strong poll showing, is that he is also gambling on Osborne’s strategy. Should the Chancellor fail then he calculates Labour will be carried to power by the freshly squeezed middle classes. Should the Chancellor be successful then Miliband will bear responsibility for leading his generation into the wilderness.
The roasting that he took on the Jeremy Vine show yesterday didn’t help particularly as people are also picking up on his fratricide, personal life and appearance.
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Will Old and Sad mark the beginning of the end?
Thursday, January 6th, 2011
The re-run of the Election for the Oldham East and Saddleworth on 13 January has the potential to light a slow burning fuse under the coalition government. The Lib Dems got within 103 votes of stealing the seat off Labour last May, but with the Lib Dem’s standing in the opinion polls going south, it is quite possible that it will do badly this time round; some observers even think the Lib Dems may get beaten into third place behind the Conservatives.
Now roll the clock forward to 5 May and the local elections and the referendum on the Alternative Vote. If the Lib Dems also perform badly at the local elections and the referendum on AV is lost, thus retaining the historical “first past the post” system, then surely almost every Lib Dem MP and party activist will be asking what the point of the coalition really is. If the consequence of doing a deal with the Conservatives is simply to wipe the party out, then surely the pressure to bring it to an end will be immense. Best to get out now before terminal damage is done, and rebuild its standing in the country – even if that means returning to its traditional position as a party of principled opposition.
And all of this is before one assesses the slow drip-drip effect of the obvious policy disagreements between the two parties.
Be under no illusion. The Election on 13 January could be the beginning of the end for the coalition.
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Gone for a Burton
Wednesday, January 5th, 2011
News today in the Telegraph that Helena Bonham Carter and husband Tim Burton spent the New Year at Chequers with the PM. Bonham Carter is a friend of Nick Clegg and comes with impeccable Liberal lineage (great granddaughter of Liberal PM Hebert Asquith).
Does this chime with the Tory Right’s claim that Cameron expends too much energy cosying up to the Lib Dems? Cameron is certainly covering all the bases if he’s prepared to groom the descendants of Liberal politicians as well as their contemporaries.
On the other hand, he may simply have been after advice on his coalition living arrangements. According to the Telegraph, Bonham Carter and Burton live in “interconnected houses”, rather like Number 10 and Clegg’s pad in the Cabinet Office.
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And we’re off!
Tuesday, January 4th, 2011
After months of phoney war between Labour and (both parts of ) the Government over what course the economy should take – battle is joined.
The perfect storm has arrived on the first week back at work - VAT rises to 20%, train tickets go up on average by 6.2%, petrol hits the £1.30 mark and there is a growing air of suspicion amongst the now freshly squeezed middle classes after the media spent the holidays cheering us up with stories about falling house prices and rising interest rates. Oh, and a pint of lager now tops 3 quid a pint.
Where do we go from here? 2011 has a number of milestones particularly the devolved elections in May accompanied by the AV referendum. The coalition remains under scrutiny from both the left and the right as the realpolitik of Government drains political capital from the Lib Dems and fires rumblings in the bellies of the Tory backswood men. All the while Ed Milliband argues for scarce time to find his voice.
The unions are promising social unrest and the banks are promising they’ll pack up and leave if they don’t get their way. Will two royal weddings unify the nation or provide a defining them and us moment?
One things for certain it’s going to be a good year for Kim Jong-Un.
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