Posts Tagged ‘Conservatives’
The new government
Thursday, May 13th, 2010
So it’s all over. After countless twists and turns – and interminable waiting – the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have finally come to an agreement and, despite Gordon Brown’s dramatic last minute intervention on Monday, the coalition soap opera has concluded and the Skycopter can finally return to base.
After a mammoth negotiating session lasting over four hours and a joint meeting of the Liberal Democrat Federal Executive and Parliamentary Party stretching past midnight, a formal Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition was formally endorsed by the Lib Dems last night, and the work of the new Government begins in earnest today.
Details of the deal struck – both in terms of policy and personnel – have been emerging throughout the day with the initial focus on the most difficult policy areas and the key Cabinet posts.
The Cabinet
Cameron has reserved the main offices of state for Conservative MPs: his close friend and ally George Osborne is the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, William Hague becomes Foreign Secretary, Theresa May is appointed as Home Secretary and Liam Fox becomes Defence Secretary.
However, Clegg held out for government posts in proportion to the votes cast for his party in last week’s General Election (23%) and has been richly rewarded – the Liberal Democrats have secured five Cabinet places in a Cabinet of twenty-three.
Clegg himself becomes Deputy Prime Minister and the Liberal Democrat deputy leader Vince Cable has been appointed as Business Secretary. Members of the party’s negotiating team have also fared well, with David Laws becoming Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Chris Huhne Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change and Danny Alexander Scottish Secretary.
This has left David Cameron with a delicate balancing act as he seeks to preserve his top talent and to ensure his new Government adequately mirrors the diverse Britain we live in today. His undertaking to reduce the government payroll, and the ministerial ranks, makes this task even more difficult.
Cabinet positions have been secured for other senior Conservatives close to Cameron. The highly regarded Michael Gove, who commented on Sunday that he would happily fall on his sword to guarantee a place for a Liberal Democrat, stays in post and becomes Schools Secretary. Andrew Lansley becomes Health Secretary, Caroline Spelman is given the environment brief and former party chairman Eric Pickles is the new Communities Secretary.
Space has also been found for the big beasts of the party – Ken Clarke has been handed the justice portfolio and former leader Iain Duncan-Smith is brought back to the front line as Work and Pensions Secretary on the back of his work with the Centre for Social Justice.
A new National Security Council has already been established to oversee all aspects of Britain’s security – one of the Conservatives’ key manifesto pledges. Chaired by the Prime Minister, this will count amongst its members Clegg, Osborne, Hague and Fox, and other Cabinet members as required. Its first meeting will take place this afternoon, reviewing the terrorist threat to the UK and the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
David Cameron has also appointed Sir Peter Ricketts, Permanent Under-Secretary at the Foreign Office, as his National Security Advisor, a position that will be based in the Cabinet Office.
The full Cabinet is as follows:
| NAME | POSITION |
| David Cameron | Prime Minister |
| Nick Clegg (LD) | Deputy Prime Minister |
| George Osborne | Chancellor of the Exchequer |
| Chris Huhne (LD) | Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change |
| Liam Fox | Secretary of State for Defence |
| Danny Alexander (LD) | Scotland Secretary |
| Vince Cable (LD) | Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills |
| David Laws (LD) | Chief Secretary to the Treasury |
| Theresa May | Home Secretary, Minister for Women and Equality |
| Ken Clarke | Justice Secretary |
| Iain Duncan-Smith | Work and Pensions Secretary |
| Cheryl Gillan |
Welsh Secretary |
| Owen Paterson | NI Secretary |
| Sir George Young |
Leader of the House of Commons |
| Jeremy Hunt | Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport Secretary |
| Patrick McLoughlin | Chief Whip |
| Lord Strathclyde | Leader of the House of Lords |
| Michael Gove | Education Secretary |
| Eric Pickles | Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government |
| Caroline Spelman | Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs |
| Andrew Lansley | Health Secretary |
| Francis Maude | Cabinet Office Minister |
| Philip Hammond | Transport Secretary |
| Andrew Mitchell | International Development Secretary |
| Dominic Grieve | Attorney General |
| Baroness Warsi | Conservative Party Chairman |
Policy implications
Reducing the deficit and ensuring economic recovery lie at the centre of the coalition agreement. There were difference in degrees between the two parties’ plans as set out in their manifestos, but ultimately both agreed with cuts of broadly similar amounts and broadly similar balances between the balance between spending cuts and tax rises. According to the agreement document, the main burden of the deficit reduction will be borne by reduced spending rather than increased taxes.
The coalition has committed itself to holding an emergency budget by 30 June. This will announce a substantial increase in the personal tax allowance – a step towards the long-term objective of raising it to £10,000 as proposed in the Lib Dem manifesto. Conservative plans to increase the NIC threshold for employers will go ahead, but the inheritance tax cut it has proposed has been conceded as part of the deal. Capital Gains Tax for non-business assets will increase.
A full departmental spending review will also be launched, reporting in the autumn. NHS and international development spending have been ring-fenced, and a pupil premium for schools in disadvantages areas will be funded, while cuts of £6 billion to non-front line services will be identified in the current year and Liam Fox has already started his Defence Review.
Political reform is core to the coalition agreement. This includes fixed term parliaments, a referendum bill on AV and a committee on an elected Lords.
A Sustainable Double Act?
The media had their first opportunity to hear from the Prime Minister and his Deputy in a slightly surreal press conference – and mutual love-in – in the gardens of No 10.
To the sound of birdsong, Cameron emphasised that the new coalition would be founded on the guiding principles of freedom, fairness and responsibility. He said that “a new politics in the national interest is more important than the party interest” and noted that Liberal Democrats would be represented at every level in government. Clegg himself will lead on political reform and deputise for Cameron at PMQs.
Tax rises could be a stumbling block. George Osborne will have to find additional funds to pay for the Liberal Democrat proposal to reintroduce the £10,000 income tax threshold. The sacrifice of the cut in employee National Insurance Contribution rises and his headline grabbing proposal to raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1m will help to go part of the way.
Whilst the AV Referendum has been positioned as a major triumph for the party, it is not a proportional voting system and in Nick Clegg’s own words, only represents a “baby step” in the right direction. Indeed, Electoral Reform Society research suggests that if the last election was rerun under AV, we would still have a hung parliament, albeit one in which the Lib Dems had 22 more seats, ironically mostly at the expense of the Conservative Party.
Whilst there has been much focus over the last few days on the difficulties of blending together the manifestos of two parties that have been fighting a general election campaign, there are many similarities between the two parties’ programmes. In the education sphere, both agree with the need to create a more diverse provider base and to introduce a “pupil premium”. Both agree with the abolition of ID cards. The Conservatives’ welfare reform proposals are likely to be implemented in full.
Compromises have been found on areas of disagreement such as Europe and Trident, with referendums to be held on all future transfers of sovereignty, joining the euro ruled out for this Parliament and commitment to a replacement for Britain’s nuclear deterrent (although no clarity on what form this will take). Liberal Democrat MPs will also be able to abstain on a number of key issues.
Clegg’s controversial amnesty for illegal immigrants that have been in the country for ten years – and played so badly in the last of the televised debates – has been dropped.
Concessions
| Conservative |
|
| Liberal Democrat |
|
| Liberal Democrat right to abstain |
|
The future for Labour
Labour will now have to regroup and the search for a new leader will begin in earnest. A number of names are already in the frame, and David Miliband declared his candidacy earlier this evening. Two candidates have, however, ruled themselves out – Alan Johnson and Deputy Leader Harriet Harman. Speculation is now set to focus on the intentions of Ed Miliband, ex-health secretary Andy Burnham, Ed Balls and left-winger Jon Cruddas.
A meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party has already taken place and the leadership election will shortly be put in train, with a new leader set to be announced at the Labour Party’s conference in Manchester in September.
Challenges ahead
But Cameron and Clegg have more pressing concerns than the Labour Party in the short-term – the new Government’s first task will be to compile a Queen’s Speech for delivery on 25 May. Expect education, welfare reform and constitutional reform to be at the centre of it.
Looking ahead, both party leaders will have challenges keeping their parties together and finding their feet in government. There will be a lot of disappointed Conservatives without jobs, many of whom will have no prospect of attaining ministerial ranks. The backbenches will include a number of unknown quantities and whilst loyalty will be the order of the day at first, disenchantment could soon set in.
The shift to five year fixed terms parliaments means there will certainly be an election in 2015 – but confidence votes may well see one take place before this…
Tags: Alan Johnson, Andy Burnham, Chris Huhne, Conservatives, Cuts, David Cameron, David Laws, David Miliband, Ed Miliband, George Osborne, Harriet Harman, John Cruddas, Labour, Lib Dems, Michael Gove, Nick Clegg, Tax
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The final debate
Friday, April 30th, 2010
The 2010 election will be remembered as the one that changed all future elections. The three debates have been the only game in town in what has otherwise been a fairly uneventful campaign, save for Wednesday’s gaffe by the PM. The final debate was the last real chance before the election for the leaders to put their case directly to the electorate on prime-time TV. The result of this debate: a more upbeat Conservative party, sustained hope for the Lib Dems and a realisation for Labour that it’s almost certainly now over.
After 270 minutes of live television in the most closely fought election for a generation, the leaders of the three main parties did not manage to land a single knockout blow on their opponents – perhaps acknowledging that the traditional yah-boo aspects of political debate turn people off. The unfamiliarity with the format and the Cleggmania phenomenon are also factors that need to be taken into account when asking why some punches have been pulled.
The verdict
Cameron and Brown have faced a choice between fighting the old enemy or the young pretender. Last night they chose both in what was a more combative debate. Both put in better performances, demonstrating that they had learnt the lessons of the previous debates.
Whilst skipping over the more troublesome aspects of the economy, the debate yesterday focussed on a range of related issues such as National Insurance, Child Tax Credits, bankers’ bonuses, education and the always delicate subject of immigration.
Brown, on his specialist subject of the economy, defended the government’s record on all fronts, but went for a more negative approach which doesn’t appear to have gone down well with the electorate. He appeared marginally stronger than the previous debates, especially given the difficult circumstances, but looked exhausted and struggled to cobble together a coherent case for a fourth Labour term. His technocratic musings on the role of Regional Development Agencies is not going to convince the man on the street to vote Labour, especially when Cameron spoke so ably about schools.
Cameron also benefitted from the discussions on the euro and immigration, areas in which Clegg looked uncomfortable, and he was able to appeal to the core vote without vacating the centre ground. He showed that he had adapted to the format well and made his arguments more relevant to the man on the street rather than through the overly complex prism of the ‘Big Society’.
Clegg put in a reasonable performance, but struggled to convey the image of change and freshness that came so easily in the first debate. The electorate now know him well and it’s difficult to be the new kid on the block when you’ve been the focus of the campaign for the past fortnight. His constant references to ‘old politics’ began to grate against the recent media backdrop and he failed to convince on immigration and the euro. A less impressive performance will leave his party disappointed that he did not win, but delighted that his participation in these debates has boosted their poll standing so substantially.
The majority of the immediate polls showed the winner was Cameron, followed by Clegg, with Brown languishing behind. A YouGov/Sun poll put Cameron on 41%, Clegg on 32% and Brown on 25%. ComRes had Cameron ahead of Clegg by 2% and Populus put both Cameron and Clegg on 38%, ahead of Brown on 25%.
You can’t handle the truth
Despite the focus of the debate being the economy, no further details could be prised out of the leaders of the cuts the parties would need to make and taxes they would raise should they find themselves in power on 7 May. This week the Institute for Fiscal Studies has reported that all three parties have not explained in their manifestos, by some distance, how they are going to finance their plans to reduce the deficit.
Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, possibly provided the best explanation of this reticence yesterday when he was reported as saying that the winner of the next election would become unelectable for a generation, such are the level of cuts needed to nurse the public finances out of intensive care. Debates between Brown and Cameron over £6billion will seem like bickering over small change when much larger numbers become the norm. Whoever wins the election will have to make difficult – and unpalatable – decisions.
Brown’s final bow
What now looks clear is that this debate was, in all likelihood, Gordon Brown’s last significant public appearance as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. If Labour is to remain in Government as part of a coalition, Brown’s head would be Nick Clegg’s first request. Cameron’s growing stature in the debates may have allowed Clegg off the hook, leaving the Labour party itself to finish off their leader whilst he looks to form a coalition with Cameron.
The Conservative leader will be hoping however, that he has done enough to win a majority. Over a drizzly bank holiday weekend, the 30% of voters who remain undecided will gradually make their minds up. Only 8 million watched the BBC’s debate last night, but with the media now providing the background narrative of Brown at the bottom of the heap, Clegg as a serious player and Cameron growing in confidence and stature, the Conservatives will be quietly confident that their man is on his way to Downing Street.
Tags: Big Society, Conservatives, David Cameron, debt, Gordon Brown, IFS, Labour, Lib Dems, Mervyn King, Nick Clegg, schools
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Last Week’s Debate Analysis
Thursday, April 22nd, 2010
There was a lot of talk last week about whether or not the Prime Ministerial debate would provide a game changing moment. Well, it did and with some style. Clegg mania has arrived and may yet be on the wane following a broadside in the press questioning not just Lib Dem policy but also his personal probity.
Before tonight’s debate let’s take a look back at what we said last week in the immediate aftermath of round one:
Dateline 16.04.10
Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg last night squared up in the first of three television election debates. An historic first, the debates offer an opportunity for the leaders to present themselves directly to an audience of millions. So how did they fare?
So, you want to be Prime Minister.
Last night’s debate had the media poring over television footage and excitedly drawing Kennedy/Nixon comparisons days before the protagonists even took to the stage. After the event, reactions are mixed and the analysis frenetic, but most agree on Nick Clegg as the inaugural victor.
Going into the debate Cameron was carrying the burden of frontrunner and Brown the weight of a 13-year incumbency. By contrast, Clegg had a new advantage for a third party leader, enjoying equal prime air-time with the two biggest parties.
Into the fray
The leaders warmed up for the debate with a day of intense rehearsal to acquaint them with the 72 rules on contributions (1 minute), applause (forbidden), and interruptions (limited). The opening statements showed they had put their rehearsal time to good use – three carefully-worded (albeit lack-lustre) pitches clearly set out policies and messages, although the clearest message of all was how anxious they were not to slip up.
The debate’s other novel feature was Nick Clegg sharing a platform with Brown and Cameron – an opportunity he exploited to the full. For Clegg, this was not just about setting out his stall but about introducing himself to the largest audience he will ever have, many of whom had never heard of him let alone knew what he stood for. The universally positive polls confirm that he did so successfully.
Time for answers
The different strategies that Cameron and Brown had decided to adopt for the debates – and particularly for dealing with the Clegg factor – soon became clear. Cameron tried hard for the most part to ignore Clegg; Brown to smother him in his embrace. Both might be revising their tactics for next time – Brown’s advances were largely spurned and Clegg was able to land some blows on Cameron without attracting too much returning fire. In response to each other, Brown chose to be the more aggressive and Cameron attempted to stick to the positive as much as possible to appeal to the viewers at home. The danger for Brown is that voters find too much aggression a turn-off and for Cameron that in trying to avoid knock-about, he risks coming across as too bland.
Heavily vetted audience questions covered immigration, health, education, crime, Afghanistan, the economy, expenses and social care. The content was familiar and dividing lines predicable, but the fresh element was hearing the leaders directly pit their policies against one another in a respectful forum. Generations of leaders who rejected live debates on the grounds that they take place every week at PMQs were undermined last night as the juvenile braying across the despatch box was exposed as a poor substitute for substantive debate.
The wider impact
The media, blogosphere and viewing public were not just tuning in for ‘the issues’. They were closely monitoring everything that wasn’t said; body language, nerves, choice of tie. Real-time polling and twittering also recorded a Clegg victory by these measures. His skilful exploitation of Cameron and Brown’s disagreements on the economy and a rejection of Brown’s attempts at a tactical anti-Cameron alliance went down well with viewers. His approachable, ‘nice guy’ addresses to camera and empathetic tone were preferred to Cameron’s stream of soundbites and Brown’s volley of statistics – although whether the nation wants the ‘nice guy’ as Prime Minister is yet to be seen.
With viewing figures and leaders’ energy levels dwindling, the leaders delivered their closing statements with what must have been a sense of relief that there had been no headline-hitting gaffes. Uncomfortable media performer Brown coped, but Cameron – who had the highest expectations to meet – has work to do in the next two debates fully to explain and effectively sell the change he is asking the country to undertake.
This debate was probably not a game-changer, but it underlined that this remains an unpredictable election, not least because the impact of the Lib Dems is so difficult at this stage to assess. But as the rest of the nation dissects the event, Brown, Cameron and Clegg are already warming up for the next head-to-head. We’ll be back next week with views and analysis of the foreign affairs debate, refereed by Adam Boulton on Sky News.
Tags: Conservatives, David Cameron, Gordon Brown, Labour, Lib Dems, Nick Clegg
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Future, Change or Fairness
Thursday, April 22nd, 2010
The election story today isn’t really about Brown, Cameron or Clegg. Instead the media are focussing on their favourite issue … the media.
The first of three leaders debates will kick off tonight on ITV1 for what many are predicting will provide the game changing moment for the three parties, none of which has succeeded in nailing the deficit issue or capturing the public’s imagination.
This week each of the parties polished their presentation skills and stepped up a gear with the publication of the manifestos. While the leader’s debates will inevitably be the main focus of the campaign, the manifesto launches provided the first opportunity to test the credibility of the parties. So how did they do?
Cuts, cuts, cuts
The big battleground of the campaign continues to be the budget deficit, with all three parties recognising that this path is going to be difficult to navigate, and the political terrain rocky.
With the budget deficit needing to be reduced by around £70 billion, arguments continue about the balance between tax increases and spending cuts, the timing of cuts, and what to cut. While in all cases it is difficult to pin down the details, it appears that the Conservatives are planning the biggest squeeze on spending (and will act more quickly than the other two parties), followed by Labour, with the Lib Dems, surprisingly given Vince Cable’s positioning as the blunt speaking economic sage, marginally behind Labour in the spending squeeze stakes. Commentators will be hoping that more details emerge in the economy leaders’ debate, although given this is the last of the three on 29 April, they will have some time to wait yet.
Policy on the cheap
The Labour Manifesto offers the public the opportunity to recognise its investment in public services to date and to consolidate this under the experience of Gordon Brown.
But policy after the election will be characterised by a prudence beyond even the early years of Gordon Brown’s chancellorship – and the source of the budget cuts remains unclear. Whilst recognising government spending must be reduced, Labour offers a set of guarantees on public services such as health and education to ensure they continue to deliver despite budget cuts. They propose a ‘future fair for all’ which is based on the idea that the state has an active and beneficial role in people’s lives and point to their record in office to demonstrate this.
The Conservative theme of the big society and their invitation to join the government of Britain rejects this expanded role for the state, supporting public services, but asking why government should always be the one to provide them. Cameron’s ‘invitation to join the government of Britain’ offers individuals and local groups the chance to run their own public services with government funding. Tax breaks for businesses and some married couples indicate traditional Conservative priorities aimed at strengthening the private sector and sense of community. Questions remain over the extent to which individuals want to run their own public services or probe the minutiae of government expenditure and Cameron’s approach could be criticised for being over-cerebral.
The Liberal Democrats offer the theme of fairness with wealth redistribution as the cornerstone. A new tax regime would remove those on the lowest incomes from tax altogether whilst the rich would have to pay more than Labour’s proposals. Vince Cable has provided additional clout, as well as populism, to the Lib Dem cause in his role as economic sage and bank-basher-in-chief. By returning the banks to centre stage the LibDems hope their manifesto pledges will rekindle the anger which people felt as ‘Fred the Shred’ hit the headlines to secure them new votes. At the heart of the Lib Dem prospectus is a major package of tax changes – £16.8bn of tax cuts, financed by £19.2bn of tax increases. Commentators have questioned whether the arithmetic adds up, as their calculations are based on being able to raise an additional £4.6bn in tax revenue from unspecified anti-avoidance measures. There is irony in this as Vince Cable has attacked both Labour and the Conservatives for relying on “efficiency savings” in their calculations.
The campaign continues
But election manifestos are not bestsellers, especially at a time when politics itself is in the dock (literally in some cases). How will these documents affect the campaign and the outcome of the election?
The manifestos ultimately provide the proof points for the general theme of the campaign and demonstrate that the parties have done the preparatory work necessary to govern effectively. They are also closely analysed by the media who will be quick to highlight inconsistencies and black holes which is why the launch presentation is often as significant as the content. With the polls so close and a hung parliament still very much on the cards, the similarities between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats – constitutional reform aside – are interesting. The Liberal Democrats have cleverly crafted their manifesto pledges to chime with the Conservatives and leave open the option of a post-election deal.
The opinion polls remain all over the place. Yesterday the Conservatives were as little as 3% ahead nationally. Today they are 9% ahead nationally and 12% ahead in the top 100 marginal seats. The truth is it is probably worth treating all polls with a pinch of salt until well after the Leaders’ Debate and the end of the first full week of campaigning. Only then will we get a clearer picture of the direction of this campaign.
Tags: Big Society, Conservatives, David Cameron, debt, Gordon Brown, Labour, Lib Dems, Nick Clegg, public services, Vince Cable
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Key campaign issues
Friday, April 9th, 2010
All three major party leaders have already made high-profile speeches outlining their key campaign themes ahead of the expected publication of party manifestos next week.
The Tories have set out six pledges focusing on debt reduction, enterprise, families, the NHS, schools and the nature of politics. Labour’s initial campaign focus has been much broader, based around securing the recovery, raising family living standards, building a high-tech economy and protecting frontline services. The Lib Dems in turn have placed fairness at the heart of policy, talking of fair taxes, fair starts for children, fair and clean politics and a fair, green economy.
Behind all of this froth the major battleground is clear: the three parties’ plans for the timing and degree of deficit reduction – and what these mean for taxation (note the controversy this week over the implications of Conservative plans to cut NI contributions) and public services.
Tags: Conservatives, debt, Labour, NHS, schools
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The Campaign
Friday, April 9th, 2010
With an average lead of around eight points coming out of Easter and a hefty war chest, the Tories have the edge going into the campaign. The Tories also have a simpler message focusing on public sector waste and the need to keep taxes low. They have had the better of the early exchanges over National Insurance; Labour will be attempting to convince voters that this is not a credible move and will have to be funded by VAT increases in the future.
The campaign itself is set to be highly personal, with the Conservatives targeting Gordon Brown and Labour focusing on what it perceives to be the weak links within the Tory party, particularly George Osborne.
Labour will be relying upon many of the big guns brought back onto the frontline over the last year – with Lord Mandelson, Alistair Campbell and even Tony Blair set to play roles.
As they set out on their battle bus, the Liberal Democrats will hope that Nick Clegg’s equal billing with the other two leaders in the TV debates will give them an extra boost as the campaign progresses.
Politics International will be sending out regular updates over the coming weeks as the campaign continues.
Tags: Alistair Campbell, Conservatives, George Osborne, Gordon Brown, Labour, Lib Dems, Lord Mandelson, Nick Clegg, Tony Blair, VAT
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